Coppa Italia Preview: Fiorentina vs Benevento

Match Information

Competition: Coppa Italia
Fixture: Fiorentina vs Benevento
Time: August 14, 2026, 19:15 (Beijing Time)
Venue: Fiorentina home

Fiorentina’s Recent Form

Fiorentina’s provided last 5 official matches show 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, scoring 3 goals and conceding 5:

1:1 draw with Atalanta
2:0 win over Juventus
0:4 loss to Roma
Two 0:0 draws

The team kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 matches, but also failed to score in 3 games, showing a clear low-scoring tendency in official matches. However, this set of records has two limitations: the most recent match dates back to May 22, more than two months before this fixture; and there are two entries on the same date (April 26), where the information for the opponent “Lindome” may be erroneous.

In 4 preseason friendlies, Fiorentina recorded 1 win and 3 draws, including a 2:2 with Real Madrid and a 1:1 with Deportivo La Coruña. The team remained unbeaten, but conceded in at least the two matches mentioned above, indicating defensive stability still needs to be observed.

Tactically, Grosso has mainly been experimenting with a 4-4-2, pairing Kean and Gudmundsson up front. Parisi is out with a torn ACL, and new signing Mastantuono may enter the rotation. The loss at left-back could affect squad completeness, but the available information is not sufficient to prove that Fiorentina has more than two key players missing simultaneously.

Benevento’s Recent Form

Benevento’s provided last 5 records show 3 draws, 2 losses, scoring 2 goals and conceding 4, without a single win. Note that the two 0:1 matches against “Cavese 1919” and “Cavese” on April 13 are very likely duplicate entries for the same match, meaning the actual number of independent samples may only be 4.

Even counting all 5 records for now, Benevento failed to score in 3 of them, and total goals never exceeded 2 in any match. Meanwhile, the data cuts off on April 19, nearly four months before this fixture, and cannot fully reflect the team’s current form.

In their most recent cup match, Benevento eliminated Ravenna 5:3, showing their attacking form has improved compared to the spring records. However, scoring 5 goals in a single match against Ravenna cannot be directly extrapolated to suggest they can maintain the same efficiency against a Serie A-level opponent.

The team’s forward Tumminello is suspended until August 29 and is confirmed absent for this match. This will reduce Benevento’s attacking options up front. As a team promoted from Serie C last season, Benevento has the motivation to challenge stronger sides, but match motivation cannot substitute for squad quality and actual data.

Head-to-Head History

No head-to-head record between the two teams was provided in the prompt, so it is not possible to verify win/loss trends, draw ratios, or home/away patterns from their direct meetings.

In particular, there is no evidence that the two teams’ last 5 meetings included at least 3 draws, so even though both teams’ own recent records each show 3 draws, this is not sufficient grounds to set a draw as the primary prediction for this match.

Data Analysis

Item	Fiorentina	Benevento
Provided last 5 results	1W 3D 1L	3D 2L
Goals scored	3	2
Goals conceded	5	4
Goals scored per game	0.6	0.4
Goals conceded per game	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets	3	1
Matches without scoring	3	3
Data gap	Over two months	Nearly four months
Data anomaly	Two same-day entries in question	Suspected duplicate entry for the same result

The prompt does not provide league standings, so the gap in strength between the two teams cannot be quantified with specific points. However, judging from the known league tiers, Fiorentina has a Serie A-level squad foundation and home advantage; Benevento, meanwhile, is a team promoted from Serie C back into Serie B, and the away side faces an objective tier gap.

The P1 draft chose 1:1, based mainly on the relatively high number of recent draws for both sides and the fact that Fiorentina still conceded during preseason. However, this judgment has clear issues:

The two teams’ head-to-head history is entirely absent, which does not meet the direct evidence required to select a draw;
Benevento’s high-draw sample is outdated and contains a suspected duplicate record;
The away side’s spring attacking data is weak, and forward Tumminello is confirmed suspended;
Fiorentina’s home advantage and squad tier advantage should not be entirely offset by preseason goals conceded.

Therefore, this match should be revised from a draw to a Fiorentina win. As for 2:0, while it matches the gap in strength on paper, Fiorentina has averaged only 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 official matches, and both teams’ data have gaps of over 30 days, so directly predicting a two-goal margin for the home side still seems aggressive.

Match Trend Assessment

Fiorentina is expected to control the match by relying on a stronger lineup, and to keep up sustained pressure through their two-forward system. Benevento may look for opportunities on quick counterattacks, but their spring official-match scoring was limited, and Tumminello’s absence further lowers the away side’s goal-scoring expectations.

Taking into account home advantage, squad tier, personnel situation, and low-scoring data, this match is more likely to see Fiorentina holding the advantage but with limited goals. The away side just scored 5 goals in a cup match, meaning the home side cannot afford to underestimate their counterattacks, but the available evidence is still insufficient to support Benevento scoring away from home.

Final Prediction

Score prediction: Fiorentina 1:0 Benevento

Confidence rating: ★★★☆☆ (3 stars)

Confidence was not raised further, mainly due to the absence of league standings and head-to-head data, the significant gaps in both teams’ official-match data, and the presence of same-day entries and duplicate records.

The above analysis is based on publicly available match data, intended for fan reference and discussion only, and does not constitute betting advice.

Final Result

Final score 4 : 1 — Prediction: Correct result ✅